To feel compelled to grow up

Answers regarding the future of the European Union have a truly short half-life. Brexit and Corona are shaking the basics and the distribution of power within Europe and the world. An unsettling does not seem to be in sight. However, a picture of the future European Union is already emerging in the background, which is partially diametrically opposed to the picture of the past. But what kind of picture will it be?

Sometimes a farewell means the beginning of something new. At the beginning of the Brexit process there was still a kind of shock within the European Union and the question came up if Brexit was caused by the structure and procedures of the EU. For the British the Union has always been a symbol for technocracy and long decision-making processes, and, indeed, they were not entirely wrong with this claim. More crucial for Brexit was an all-British socio-cultural reality, expressed by the former editor of the tabloid newspaper The Sun, David Yelland. He said that the UK has a misplaced nostalgia which is characterized by a strong obsession with World War Two and the feeling of being a world power without needing other countries. Reinforced by the press again and again the UK saw only economic added values in cooperation in the internal market until populism entered the British political system. This found its expression in the non-accession to the Euro zone, the Schengen area and the political campaign slogan “We send the EU £350 million a week. Let’s found our NHS [National Health System] instead” by Vote Leave.

The UK was never available for further political integration. Finding support from just the Germans of all places the UK drove a wedge between France and Germany, formally known as the motor of integration within the European Union. Thus, Brexit can be regarded as a solution to a blockade of a further political integration in the broadest sense. Rightly the French president Macron emphasized the fundamentally different ideas about Europe and the EU between France and the UK and that the UK harmed unity and coherence of the union. If the regulatory framework of the EU was already in question before Brexit, the question of the same is even more so now. And this was not the only open one. It is rather a cluster of threats on the horizon.

At the beginning of next year, the EU must offset the UK rate of the budget of around 14 billion Euros a year and institutions like the European Investment Bank must cope with a capital deduction. In the future there is a risk of a structural design and development deficits especially in Eastern and Southern European countries. Admittedly, the British government has not ruled out participating in selected EU programs or agencies even after Brexit, but a final assessment of the effects can only be given at the end of the Brexit negotiations. Here it should be noted, however, that the avoidable threat can have a considerable impact on the general conditions of the members from a political, social, and economic perspective and it opens a back door for infiltration.

With Brexit the Union will lose both a nuclear power and a permanent member of the UN Security Council. This is not only a devaluation of the EU’s power political standing; it also reduces opportunities to influence in crises inside and outside the geopolitical area of the EU. Furthermore, European influence within the NATO is reduced. As a result of Trump’s self-destructive agitation, NATO is already in a dwindling spiral and it is questionable whether NATO will have the status it has given in the Cold War. Instead of strengthening NATO discussions about the American troop transfer of 10,000 soldiers from Germany to Poland are creating tensions between both countries and additionally destroy the operational capability of American troops in the Middle East and Africa. While the behaviour of the American government could be called rash, others take the chance to test and to provoke the Europeans. These powers have one goal in common: to gain influence and to prevent Europe from becoming stronger. The Chinese efforts as part of the One Belt, One Road project to take over infrastructures such as ports, airports and track systems in the Balkans and the Baltic States are examples of this. Moreover, the Turkish president Erdogan uses the refugee crisis to blackmail concessions from the EU and to present himself domestically as a strong leader to create legitimacy for rule beyond democratic processes. Russia infiltrates the social and political systems of European countries by using social bots to spread fake news and by paying hidden party donations such as to the AfD in Germany. This procedure could be called social engineering.

With the withdrawal of British MPs from EU parliament the right-wing populist parliamentary group becomes the fourth largest group. Due to the complex voting mechanism, the Eastern European countries will have a greater chance of getting their ideas assert. Remember, especially in Eastern European countries like Poland and Hungary illiberal right-wing populist governments have transformed the political democratic national systems into authoritarianism. Remember, the EU citizenship ensures every citizen human rights, rule of law and political rights. To be sure, the EU citizenship creates a derivative or dependent citizenship, because you can only be a citizen of the Union if you are a citizen of a member state. These tensions between the national and the European levels, which were not resolved in the run-up to Brexit, can led to a decline in the European value system and the negation of a European peace and value community, if right-wing populist get more influence over politics, polity and policy in Europe. Having in mind Russian hidden party donations to right-wing populist parties like the AfD in Germany, this issue takes on a higher meaning and it also shows the complexity and scope of Brexit.

The fears of commentators regarding a process of decline of the Union and a domino effect concerning further notices of resignation from the Union were justified. And although a virus called Corona initially stepped up the negative trend within the European Union and evidence is given that things started to change before Corona hit the scene, it could be called a game changer and game booster in many ways. But what is so special about Corona?

Well, of course Corona is something biological and unfortunately in many cases it leads to the death of a human being. Taking an exclusively social science perspective, Corona changed the most central aspect of human coexistence: the social space. Both, overcoming and working in and on social spaces are marking aspects that preserve existence of the European Union and most of all Germany. Let me clarify this by the following examples.

The European Union is primary an economic community based on the four freedoms: free movement of goods, capital, services, and people. These freedoms determine the rules of how the social space between the European states should be bridged in any way. As well as it ensures social and economic prosperity and it has guaranteed peace during the last decades after two devastating world wars. Like with the Union Germany’s lifeline is the economy. To be more precise, after World War Two it has become German states and national goal to work for peace and integration in Europe and if you like you can call it fateful connection between the European Union and German. And Corona threatens the basis of existence and the self-image of both parties. It leads, so to speak, to feel compelled to grow up and to turn into a dynamic process of self-awareness.

Already in 2018 as part of the security and policy of the EU the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) was launched. It forms a new comprehensive defence package for the EU in connection with the Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD), the European Defence Fund and the Military Planning and Conduct Capability (MPCC). Like NATO PESCO enhanced co-operation in other policy areas. Of course it can not replace NATO yet and maybe it will take some years before PESCO will work perfectly, but it is a first step to become independent from American hegemony and a first step to oppose efforts from other countries to gain influence over internal European issues.

Europe’s leading politicians don’t get tired of emphasizing that Europe has to develop an European sovereignty (Macron), to learn the language of power (Joseph Borrell – High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy) and that the European commission has to become a geopolitical commission (Ursula von der Leyen – President of the European Commission). In her last government statement, German chancellor Merkel emphasized that Europe must cooperate, will cooperate in the future and that solidarity between all nations is essential for the Union and for Germany. These words take on a much deeper meaning given the rotating takeover of the Presidency of the Council of the EU. Both, the German government and German citizens have realized that taking over lead in European issues is not a sign for arrogance and striving for power, it is a sign for willingness to lead Europe in a way that was often demanded by politicians and commentators around Europe, a lead based on the ground of the European treaties. The negotiations on the After-Brexit trade agreement will be the first test of the new self-image.

Europe is waking up and already exercises self-confidence and self-responsibility, and it is learning fast. The Turkish president Erdogan is increasingly being shown the limits. In Germany and many other parts of Europe the American withdrawal is accepted with indifference and the resulting opportunities are emphasized. The extensive European economic aid program, signed in rare unity under the leadership of France and Germany (the old motor of integration), is also intended to counteract the Chinese ambitions of buying infrastructure. A lesson learnt from the crises from 2008, when China bought infrastructure in Greece.

Corona opened many new flashing angles for us. A new European sovereignty includes being able to take care of yourself in an emergency. The extent to which Europe is still willing to have vital medical and technical products manufactured in non-European countries, such as China, must and will be reconsidered. Beyond, the European Union tries to establish a European cloud named Gaia-X until the end of 2020. This project can be regarded as a counterattack against the digital superiority of Americans and Chinese.

What kind of power does Europe want to be? According to the British historian Timothy Garton Ash, Europe is an anti-imperialistic empire, because it does not know how powerful it can be. Presumably, Europe will never be a military power. Its sphere of activity is trade, research, and technology with a big pinch of communication.  

Probably, Europe is an economic power. On the one hand Europe and its member states are proud of this fact. On the other hand, because of climate change and the death of George Floyd, Europeans are becoming aware of a new issue that will demand a lot from them. The context between economic size, colonial times, racism, and the resulting responsibility. On the one hand, Europe demands commitments to human rights, free trade, and peace from other countries. On the other hand, it makes deals with non-democratic countries and allows undemocratic structures in its own ranks.

This may appear to be duplicitous. But the Europeans have learnt that changes take time and that it is important that the direction of development is right. To solve addressed current and future problems, crisis and challenges the best way is to communicate and to co-operate, and after a while to start all over again and again and again. And by the way, everyone is invited. It may disappoint many countries in this world because they are in favour of a strong Europe which occasionally hits the table. Let me ask you the following question: If you are sitting on a table, what kind of guest do you prefer?

Let me finish these lines with a quote from 1924 by a French philosopher Paul Valéry how stated: “Europe is a paradoxical system – it has achieved the highest level of mental unity … and the highest level of disagreement with regard to volition.” Disagreements are good because they let a system evolve and let it create new ways. It is a basic for democracy (a European democracy, not an American one). Volition take time, but a good start has been made. Maybe it took 100 years, but good things take time.